Luca Barberis

How long between repeat orders, and is that gap shrinking?

№ 066 · Days-between-purchases distribution

01

Definition

MetricDistribution of elapsed days between consecutive orders, principally first to second

Unitdays, reported as median and as the shape of the distribution

Histogram of gap between consecutive orders per customer. Right-skewed; smaller mode means stickier customer base. Build from order timestamps per customer. Mode informs replenishment campaign timing. Example: 24% reorder within 14 days, 34% within 30 days, long tail of one-time buyers.

02

Benchmarks

Bottom 30%MedianTop 30%
median above 60 days, with a flat distribution and no early mode15 to 35 days median; 50 to 100+ days meanmedian under 20 days first to second

Non-subscription DTC ecommerce, first to second order, 2024 to 2026. Definition used: elapsed days between order one and order two for customers who placed a second order, reported as median because the distribution is heavily right-skewed. · The mean and the median differ by a factor of roughly three on this metric and confusing them is the single most consequential error on this card. Platform dashboards typically report the mean (50 to 100+ days) because a long tail of late returners drags it, while the median across DTC sits at 15 to 35 days. Flows built on the mean fire after most of the repeat behaviour has already happened or been lost. BS and Co's dataset shows roughly half of all repeaters return within 30 days. Vertical composition of the underlying 156,110-customer dataset is not disclosed, so the per-vertical bands should be treated as working benchmarks. Note also that 12-month repeat-rate figures and time-to-second-purchase figures often use different denominators (all customers versus repeaters only), so they cannot be combined without checking.

By category
CategoryBottom 30%MedianTop 30%
Apparel and beauty45+ days15 to 27 daysunder 15 days
Supplements and consumables90+ days27 to 68 days27 days
Electronics and home goods120+ days30+ days30 days
03

When it looks bad

The distribution has no early mode at all but a long flat plateau stretching past 90 days, which means there is no consumption or replenishment rhythm driving repurchase and every second order is being bought with a promotion.

The histogram shows no peak before day 60, a broad plateau from day 60 to day 180, and visible spikes exactly on campaign dates. Median time to second order is 84 days against a category median of 22, and the post-purchase flow fires on day 60 because it was built on the mean.

04

What to do about it

  • Retime the post-purchase flow to the median, not the mean. With a 15 to 35 day median and a 50 to 100+ day mean, a flow built on the dashboard average fires after roughly half of all repeat behaviour has already resolved.
  • Set the replenishment prompt at the observed consumption interval per product, not one store-wide delay. Supplements at 27 to 68 days and apparel at 15 to 27 days cannot share a trigger, and the same-product reorder is the dominant second-order behaviour at 77%.
  • Track the 45-day second-purchase rate as the working KPI rather than the 365-day repeat rate. Strong operators benchmark at 25% to 35% within 45 days, and it is a leading indicator that moves inside a quarter, unlike the annual figure.
  • Watch for campaign spikes in the distribution. If the modes align with promotion dates rather than with a consumption interval, the repeat curve is being bought rather than earned, and the margin cost belongs in the payback calculation in card 055.
05

Sources

  1. BS and CoRepeat Purchase Rate Benchmarks: 18.8% Across 156K Customers · 2026 · n=156,110+ customers across 10+ verticals, 365-day lookback Median time to second purchase clusters between 15 and 35 days while the average ranges from 50 to 100+ days; roughly half of repeaters return within 30 days and 77% repurchase the same product bsandco.us ↗
  2. EightxAverage time to second purchase by ecommerce vertical (2026) · 2026 · Built on the 156,110-customer dataset plus Storeleads data; vertical composition not disclosed by the underlying source Cross-vertical median 15 to 35 days: apparel and beauty 15 to 27, supplements 27 to 68, electronics and home goods 30+ with a wide gap to the mean eightx.co ↗
  3. EasyApps Ecom (citing Metrilo)Shopify Customer Retention Statistics 2026 · 2026 · Compilation of Metrilo, Shopify Plus and Adobe published figures Median time to second purchase 45 days with 62% of repeat purchases occurring within 90 days; first 90-day window accounts for the majority of eventual churn easyappsecom.com ↗
  4. MetriloReport: Customer retention and DTC brands · 2022 · n=65 DTC brands Time between orders varies enormously by product, with the best-performing brand in the sample receiving an order from each customer roughly every 42 days on the back of a wide product range metrilo.com ↗
  5. Wavy StudiosThe First-to-Second Order Playbook · 2026 · Agency operating benchmarks Second purchase rate within a 45-day cohort window benchmarks at 25% to 35% for strong operators, with a target of under 30 days time-to-second-purchase for consumables wavystudios.com ↗
  6. Purposeful ProfitsWhy Your Repeat Purchase Rate Is Below 20% · 2026 · Agency practice guidance on DTC brands Recommends the repeat prompt at day 30 to 45 timed to when product runs low, with review request at day 14 to 21; this cadence typically lifts repeat rates 8 to 15 percentage points against confirmation-only programmes purposefulprofits.co ↗
  7. Retention SideEcommerce email marketing benchmarks (2026 data) · 2026 · Klaviyo benchmarks plus agency client data The post-purchase window is the highest-engagement moment in the lifecycle and its real return is the long-term second-purchase rate rather than same-sequence conversion, which understates it retentionside.com ↗