Is average selling price moving up or down?
№ 124 · ASP trend
Definition
MetricAverage selling price and its rate of change
UnitUSD ASP and % change year on year
Average selling price over time. Watch for slow erosion from competitive pricing pressure. Build by dividing revenue by units shipped per period. ASP decline + volume growth can be fine; ASP decline + flat volume is alarm. Example: $84 Q1, $79 Q4 (-6%, investigate).
- ASP
- Average selling price. Net revenue divided by units sold.
Benchmarks
| Bottom 30% | Median | Top 30% |
|---|---|---|
| ASP flat to falling, minus 2% or worse | ASP up 2% to 4% year on year | ASP up 5% or more year on year |
Consumer connected devices, global, 2023 to 2026. ASP defined as device revenue divided by units shipped (sell-in basis), before accessory and service revenue. · Direction is marked higher_better because ASP erosion is the default failure mode in this category, but the metric is genuinely two-sided: ASP can fall for good reasons, such as deliberately adding an entry tier that expands the base. Read it against units and against gross profit per unit, never alone. Definitions also differ materially. Counterpoint measures market-level ASP including channel markup, IDC's wearable ASPs are tracker-level for a specific geography, and a manufacturer's own 10-K ASP is net revenue over units shipped and will sit below the market figure. The India wearable figures below are a single-country tracker and are not global.
| Category | Bottom 30% | Median | Top 30% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smartphones, global market ASP | Below $250, typical of India-weighted mix | $370 full-year 2025, up about 3.6% on 2024 | Above $400 in-quarter |
| Smartwatches, India tracker | Flat to falling on entry-tier mix | $26.5 in 2025, up 11.7% | Up 10% or more year on year |
| Earwear and hearables, India tracker | Down 3% or worse on TWS price competition | $17.5 in 2025, down 1.1% | Flat to slightly up |
| Action cameras, single-manufacturer reported ASP | Falling ASP alongside falling units | $357 in 2025 against $330 in 2024 | Up 8% or more with deliberate mix reset |
When it looks bad
The ASP line steps down in the two quarters after each launch and never recovers to the prior peak, while the unit line stays flat, so the range is being discounted into rather than mixed up.
ASP falls from $312 to $268 over six quarters, a 14% decline, with units flat at 9,400 a quarter, so device revenue drops 14% with no volume gained in return.
What to do about it
- Manage mix rather than list price. Counterpoint attributes the global rise from $357 to $370 mainly to premiumisation, so build a good, better, best ladder and shift the unit share upward rather than repricing the same SKU.
- Cap promotional depth and the share of units allowed to sell on promotion, by quarter, before the sales team sets targets. One public camera maker lifted ASP 8% to $357 in 2025 while accepting a 25% unit decline, which is the shape of a deliberate promotion and mix reset rather than a demand failure.
- Move discount out of headline price and into trade-in credit, so reported ASP holds while the effective consumer price moves. Trade-in value returned to US consumers rose 42% in 2025 (Assurant), which shows the lever has room in it.
- When component costs rise, reprice accessories and bundles before the core device. IDC expects memory tightness to hold wearable ASPs elevated through 2026, which is cover for a price move, but only if the core SKU stays anchored.
Sources
- Counterpoint Research Global smartphone ASP forecast to rise from $357 in 2024 to $370 in 2025 and $412 by 2029, a 3% compound annual rate, driven mainly by premiumisation rather than like-for-like price rises. counterpointresearch.com ↗
- Counterpoint Research Global smartphone ASP crossed $400 for the first time in a single quarter in Q4 2025, with shipments up 5% year on year. counterpointresearch.com ↗
- IDC India wearable ASP rose 1.8% to $20.3 in 2025 while units fell 4.0%. Smartwatch ASP rose 11.7% from $23.8 to $26.5 despite a 17.6% unit decline, while earwear ASP fell 1.1% to $17.5. biztechreports.com ↗
- IDC Overall India wearable ASP rose 2.2% year on year to $19.2 in 2Q25 and was flat at $18.7 across 1H25, while smartwatch shipments fell 28.4% year on year. my.idc.com ↗
- IDC Memory-related supply constraints are expected to keep average selling prices elevated through 2026, softening replacement demand in price-sensitive segments, with smartwatch volumes forecast down 2.8%. idc.com ↗
- US SEC (GoPro, Inc.) Reported ASP of $357 in 2025 against $330 in 2024 and $337 in 2023, an 8% rise, achieved alongside a 25% fall in units after a prior-year entry-level $199 SKU and heavier promotion. sec.gov ↗
- Counterpoint Research, reported via BigGo Finance Global smartphone ASP hit an all-time high of $356 in 2024 with little sign of easing, and rising memory prices are expected to push manufacturers further toward higher-margin premium devices. finance.biggo.com ↗
- IDC Smartwatches were expected to decline 4.5% in 2024, with an influx of low-cost options in India driving elevated inventory and raising questions over the sustainability of the race to the bottom on ASP. my.idc.com ↗