Luca Barberis

Are average transactions growing?

№ 115 · Basket size trend

01

Definition

MetricAverage transaction value, with units per transaction as companion

Unit% YoY change in average transaction value, UPT in units

Single line of average transaction value over time. Pull total revenue divided by transaction count daily; average monthly. Rising basket = upsell or product-mix shift working. Example: $42 Q1, $48 Q4 (basket-building tactics working).

02

Benchmarks

Bottom 30%MedianTop 30%
0% or negative ATV growth, UPT falling+2.5% to +3.0% ATV growth, UPT flat+5.0% or better ATV growth, UPT rising

Physical store retail, developed and Southeast Asian urban markets, ATV = gross sales divided by transaction count, nominal and not inflation adjusted, 2024 to mid 2026 · Absolute ATV is not comparable across formats or currencies, so the benchmark is expressed as growth rate and paired with UPT. Confidence is low because no Tier 1 people-counting or POS vendor publishes ATV percentiles for physical stores in the open, and the ecommerce AOV and UPT datasets that dominate search results are a different family and must not be borrowed here. The critical read is that most 2024 to 2026 ATV growth is price, not units: NRSInsights recorded same-store sales +5.7% YoY in October 2025 against units sold +1.3% and top-500 item prices +3.0%. Any ATV growth below local CPI is a real-terms decline in basket value. Home Depot's Q4 2025 ticket rose 2.4% and management attributed it to price increases and mix rather than deeper baskets, which is the pattern to expect across the period.

Category split omitted: ATV is denominated in local currency and is format specific, and no two independent Tier 1 or Tier 2 datasets publish comparable physical-store ATV splits by category.

03

When it looks bad

The ATV line rises steadily while the UPT line underneath it declines, which means baskets are getting more expensive rather than fuller and the growth is entirely price and mix.

ATV +4.1% YoY to $47.80, UPT down from 2.6 to 2.3, transaction count -2.8%. Strip out price and the basket has actually shrunk by roughly half a unit.

04

What to do about it

  • Chart ATV and UPT on the same axis and treat a diverging pair as a red flag rather than a mixed result. ATV rises with inflation and mix without any change in selling behaviour, so UPT is the only one of the two that measures whether staff are actually attaching items (Acquire).
  • Deflate the ATV series by local CPI and publish the real-terms line next to the nominal one. NRSInsights shows sales +5.7% on units +1.3% with prices +3.0%, so roughly three quarters of headline basket growth in that period was price (NRSInsights).
  • Set UPT targets by format rather than chain-wide, since 1.2 is excellent in luxury and below 2.0 is underperformance in fast fashion. A single chain target punishes the categories that structurally cannot attach and lets the categories that should attach coast (Devutl).
  • Run attachment at the till rather than on the floor when UPT is the binding constraint, because the customer is already committed. Moving UPT from 2.5 to 3.0 through bundling and checkout recommendation is a standard quarterly target and needs no additional traffic (Databox).
05

Sources

  1. NRSInsights (National Retail Solutions)NRSInsights October 2025 Retail Same-Store Sales Report · 2025 · n=approximately 32,900 independent retailers, 37,900 active POS terminals, US Same-store sales rose 5.7% YoY in October 2025 while units sold rose only 1.3%, and the average price paid on the top 500 items rose 3.0%. barchart.com ↗
  2. TruRatingRetail Conversion Rate: Definition, Formula, Benchmarks and Fixes · 2026 · over one billion in-the-moment point-of-payment customer ratings A store lifting conversion from 15% to 17% gains 24 additional purchases per day, which at a $32 average transaction value is more than $5,000 per week in incremental revenue on unchanged traffic. trurating.com ↗
  3. LSEG Lipper Alpha InsightQ4 2025 U.S. Retail Scorecard · 2026 · n=190 companies in the LSEG US retail index Lowe's posted +1.3% same-store sales against a 0.4% estimate, TJX posted +5.0%, and Home Depot average ticket rose 2.4% on mix and price. lipperalpha.refinitiv.com ↗
  4. AcquireUnits per Transaction (UPT): Definition and How to Calculate · 2026 · definitional reference for physical retail Average transaction value rises with inflation or mix shift without any change in selling behaviour, so UPT isolates selling effectiveness by measuring items per basket independent of price. acquire.fi ↗
  5. DevutlUPT (Units Per Transaction) Calculator and Reference Table · 2026 · retail vertical reference table, no disclosed panel In luxury retail a UPT of 1.2 is excellent, while in fast fashion anything below 2.0 is generally considered underperformance. devutl.com ↗
  6. DataboxUnits per Transaction KPI · 2025 · KPI benchmark library A typical store-level improvement target is moving UPT from 2.5 to 3.0 within a quarter through bundling, in-store recommendation and checkout upsell. databox.com ↗
  7. GrowthFactorSame-Store Sales: What They Measure and Why They Matter · 2026 · public chain disclosures, 2025 to Q1 FY2026 McDonald's closed 2025 with US comps +6.8% in Q4 on positive guest counts, Chipotle posted full-year comps of -1.7% and Q4 -2.5%, and an October 2025 restaurant industry comp of +0.7% masked a 2.0% traffic decline. growthfactor.ai ↗
  8. Theory House2025 Retail Performance Indicators · 2025 · retail KPI practice guidance Average transaction value sits alongside conversion and sales per square foot as a core store productivity indicator and should be segmented by department and location rather than read at chain level. theoryhouse.com ↗