Luca Barberis

How much discounting are we doing, and at what margin cost?

№ 119 · Markdown depth vs margin

01

Definition

MetricMarkdown rate against realised gross margin

Unitmarkdown value as % of gross sales at retail, plotted against realised gross margin %

Scatter with discount % on x and resulting margin on y. Deep negative correlation typically, but useful to see if you are worse than the curve. Build by aggregating margin per discount tier. Sets the floor on future promo depth. Example: 25%-off events held 28% margin; 50%-off events 8%.

02

Benchmarks

Bottom 30%MedianTop 30%
markdown rate 30% or above, realised margin 15+ points below listmarkdown rate 18% to 20%, realised margin 10 to 12 points below listmarkdown rate 12% of gross sales or below, realised margin within 4 points of list margin

Apparel and softlines specialty retail, markdown value as a percentage of gross sales at retail across a full season, US and European anchored, 2024 to mid 2026 · Direction is shape rather than lower_better because zero markdown is not the healthy end of this chart. A retailer running near-zero markdown has almost always bought too shallow and left full-price demand unserved, which shows up as lost sales rather than as margin. The healthy pattern is a modest markdown rate paired with realised margin close to list. Definitions diverge sharply: some sources count markdown as a share of gross sales, others as a share of net sales, and Eightx reports markdowns consuming 20 to 50% of net sales at fashion retailers, which is not comparable to the 12% of total sales figure Toolio cites for US retail overall. State the denominator. The structural backdrop is that full-price sell-through has fallen from a 70 to 75% norm to roughly 50% at many fashion retailers, so the whole distribution has shifted right since 2019 and older benchmarks understate current markdown rates.

Category split omitted: Markdown rate splits by category are published only in single-source compilations with inconsistent denominators, so no two independent Tier 1 or Tier 2 datasets support a comparable split.

03

When it looks bad

The markdown bars step up late and steeply in the last third of the season while the realised margin line falls away from list margin in the same weeks, which is the signature of clearing stock with one deep cut instead of several shallow ones.

No markdown until week 11 of a 14 week season, then a single 50% cut clearing 38% of units, realised margin 17 points below list against a plan of 8 points.

04

What to do about it

  • Move the first markdown earlier and shallower and cap the season at two or three steps. A first cut of 10 to 25% triggered by sell-through protects far more margin than one late clearance, and disciplined markdown management is worth roughly 400 to 800 basis points of gross margin without changing whether you discount at all (Eightx, Toolio).
  • Trigger markdowns on sell-through and inventory age, not on the calendar. Fixed schedules such as 20% at 30 days and 40% at 60 days apply the same cut to a SKU tracking at 80% and one tracking at 30%, which overpays on the winners and underreacts on the losers (NUL).
  • Set the depth ceiling from category gross margin rather than from a chain-wide discount policy, since break-even volume requirements climb steeply above roughly 15% depth. The same 20% cut is affordable at 60% apparel margin and severe at 35% electronics margin (Digital Applied).
  • Track realised margin alongside list margin as two lines on the same chart. A 25% average discount on a 69% list margin SKU realises 58%, and the eleven point gap is where merchandising decisions actually live, invisible if only list margin is reported (Uphance).
05

Sources

  1. ToolioMarkdowns vs Discounts: Strategy, Timing and Margin Impact · 2026 · merchandising planning vendor compilation citing US retail aggregates Markdowns cost US retailers about $300 billion in a single year, roughly 12% of total sales. Optimising markdown timing and depth improves margin rates by 4 to 8 percentage points. On average only about 60% of apparel products sell at full price. toolio.com ↗
  2. EightxApparel Markdown Strategy: The Margin Math of When, How Deep and How Often to Discount · 2026 · SEC EDGAR filings (American Eagle CIK 0000919012, Revolve CIK 0001746618), FRED CPIAPPSL, Coresight returns data, anonymised founder-call corpus Full-price sell-through has fallen from a 70 to 75% norm to roughly 50% at many fashion retailers, and markdowns now consume an estimated 20 to 50% of net sales. eightx.co ↗
  3. UphanceProfit Margin Calculation for Apparel Brands · 2026 · apparel brands in the $5M to $100M revenue band Average discount rates run 15 to 30% across the catalogue over a season. A SKU at $80 list and $25 landed cost carries 69% list margin but 58% realised margin at a 25% average discount. Discounts and markdowns reduce realised margin by 10 to 15 percentage points for typical apparel promotional cadence. uphance.com ↗
  4. Priceva, citing National Retail FederationRetail Markdown Strategy: Pricing Tactics and Profit Tips · 2025 · cited NRF figure for 2024 to 2025 Over 30% of retail inventory is subject to markdowns annually. priceva.com ↗
  5. UphanceRetail Markdown Optimization for Apparel Brands · 2026 · apparel merchandising practice guidance Blanket discounting costs twice, compressing gross margin now and depressing full-price sell-through next season by training customers to wait, so targeted time-bound discounts on slow movers outperform season-wide cuts. uphance.com ↗
  6. Digital AppliedEcommerce Discount Strategy 2026: Margin-Aware Playbook · 2026 · category gross margin bands aggregated from public brand data Apparel and fashion carry roughly 50 to 65% gross margin, home goods 40 to 55%, electronics and accessories 30 to 50%. Break-even volume requirements climb steeply above 15% discount depth, and the same 20% discount is survivable in beauty and severe in electronics. digitalapplied.com ↗
  7. NULThe Complete Guide to Markdown Pricing Strategy in Retail · 2025 · retail pricing practice guidance Fixed markdown schedules such as 20% after 30 days and 40% after 60 days trade simplicity for margin, and inventory ageing should drive the trigger rather than the calendar. nul.global ↗
  8. ToolioSell-Through Rate: Formula, Benchmarks and Strategies to Improve It · 2026 · merchandising planning vendor compilation across client verticals Target ranges by vertical: apparel and fashion 65 to 85%, health and beauty 75 to 90%, sporting goods 70 to 85%, general retail 70 to 80%, consumer electronics 60 to 75%, home and furniture 55 to 75%, luxury and jewellery 50 to 65%. End-of-season below 60% triggers markdown escalation. toolio.com ↗
  9. NULSell-Through in Fashion: Calculator, Benchmarks and Optimization · 2026 · fashion brand compilation, no disclosed panel Many retailers target around 70% full-price sell-through before the first markdown and 90 to 95% final sell-through after clearance, with below 50% before sale season treated as a warning requiring action. nul.global ↗