Are we closing better or worse over time?
№ 155 · Win rate trend
Definition
MetricClosed-won as a share of qualified opportunities resolved, tracked over time
Unit% of qualified opportunities won
Single line of closed-won divided by closed (won plus lost) over time. Pull from CRM monthly. Watch for slow decline as a market shifting signal. Drop tied to a particular competitor signals a product or pricing problem. Example: 28% Q1, 24% Q2, 21% Q3.
- CRM
- Customer relationship management system. The system of record for accounts, contacts and pipeline.
Benchmarks
| Bottom 30% | Median | Top 30% |
|---|---|---|
| 12% or below | 19% to 21% | 30% or above |
B2B across industries, closed-won divided by total closed opportunities, from a pipeline dataset of 655,000 opportunities worth $48B across 387 companies. 2024 to 2025 data, North America and UK weighted. · The direction of travel matters more than the level here, and it is sharply negative. Ebsta's 2025 dataset puts the average win rate at 19%, down from 29% the prior year, and its 2024 edition already reported win rates 18% below 2022 and 27% below 2021. Bridge Group's AE data shows the same shape independently, moving from 23% in 2022 to 19% in 2023. Because of this, any benchmark drawn from 2021 or 2022 should be treated as historical context rather than a target. The definitional spread is wide: win rate measured post-proposal rather than on all qualified opportunities runs far higher, and figures near 28% to 30% circulating from survey sources generally use a looser denominator than the pipeline datasets. Compare like for like or the trend line will be the only trustworthy part of the chart.
| Category | Bottom 30% | Median | Top 30% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Customer success sourced | under 38% | 52% | 60%+ |
| Sales sourced | under 30% | 43% | 50%+ |
| Channel and partner sourced | under 28% | 39% | 46%+ |
| Marketing sourced | under 19% | 27% | 34%+ |
| New logo, all sources, broad B2B sample | under 14% | 19% | 27%+ |
When it looks bad
The trend line declines steadily while opportunity volume rises, meaning the team is compensating for a conversion problem by pushing more pipeline through the same broken step.
Win rate falls from 26% to 14% over six quarters while opportunity count roughly doubles and bookings stay flat.
What to do about it
- Tighten qualification before anything else. Ebsta's 2025 qualification study across 655,000 opportunities concluded that qualification discipline, not meeting volume or pipeline size, was the largest differentiator between top-performing teams and the rest.
- Mandate multi-threading at discovery. Engaging six or more stakeholders early moves win rate from 12% to above 40% in the Ebsta dataset, which is a larger effect than any other lever documented in that research.
- Invest coaching in discovery rather than closing. Analysis of 240,000 minutes of seller calls found top performers 455% better at discovery, and discovery quality determines whether the stakeholder map exists at all.
- Recalculate pipeline coverage against the current win rate rather than the historical one. At 19% the implied coverage requirement is roughly 5.3x, which is expensive to generate and is the reason most teams quietly run short.
Sources
- Ebsta and Pavilion Average win rate 19%, down from 29% the prior year. 78% of sellers missed quota, up from 69%. Top performers close 11x faster than bottom performers, up from 8.9x in 2024 and 4x in 2022. Top 14% of sellers generate 80% of revenue. Engaging 6 or more stakeholders early moves win rate from 12% to above 40%. Channel velocity: partner and referral 1.3x, organic 1.2x, outbound 1.05x, events 0.78x, paid 0.68x. Expansion is 52% of new revenue. 46% of SaaS and tech companies moving to full-cycle sales. joinpavilion.com ↗
- Ebsta (PR Newswire release) 78% of sellers missed quota in 2025 versus 69% in 2024. Deal values up 54% year over year. Top-to-bottom seller velocity gap widened to 11x from 8.9x. prnewswire.com ↗
- The Bridge Group Median OTE $190K at 53:47 base to variable, up from $167K in 2022. Median commission rate 11.5% of ACV at full attainment. Quota-to-OTE 3.2x at 25th percentile and 4.8x at 75th. Quotas grew about 2% annually while OTE grew above 5% CAGR. blog.bridgegroupinc.com ↗
- SaaSletter (Matt Harney) A 19% win rate implies roughly 5.3x pipeline coverage is required, which is expensive to generate and hard to sustain in practice. saasletter.com ↗
- Cloud Radio (Cloud Ratings) interview with Ebsta CEO Guy Rubin Top performers are 455% better at discovery than B and C players. Engaging 6 or more stakeholders early lifts win rates from 12% to above 40%. Channel velocity ranks partner and referral highest at 1.3x and paid lowest at 0.68x. cloudradio.cloudratings.com ↗
- Ebsta Qualification discipline, rather than meeting volume or pipeline size, was the largest single differentiator between top-performing sales teams and the rest. ebsta.com ↗
- Ebsta Despite 61% of businesses adopting a sales methodology, most commonly MEDDPICC, just 15% of opportunities were fully qualified. Lost opportunities with strong early relationships closed 211% faster. ebsta.com ↗
- SaaStr Suggests $500K to $1M ARR per sales rep at scale, ramp of 3-6 months at $20K-$80K ACV and about 60 days below $10K, 70-80% of reps hitting quota as healthy, pipeline coverage of 3x to 4x, and win rates of 20-30%. saastr.com ↗
- The Bridge Group 48% of reps at quota, down from 51% in 2024. Median AE OTE $200K. Median AE quota $960K at 4.6x quota-to-OTE. Average ramp 6.2 months, highest in study history. Required experience at hire 3.7 years, up from 2.7 in 2022. SaaS median quota $875K. bridgegroupinc.com ↗