Luca Barberis

How long do new subscribers stay?

№ 080 · Retention curve by cohort

01

Definition

MetricSubscriber retention by signup cohort

Unit% of cohort still paying at month N

Percent of subscribers retained at month N per signup cohort. Watch the M1 cliff (trial-to-paid leakage). Build from subscription event data, counting active subs per cohort per month. Step changes follow content launches. Example: Jan cohort 78% at M1, 62% at M6; Apr cohort 84% at M1 (improving).

02

Benchmarks

Bottom 30%MedianTop 30%
Monthly plans: under 10% at month 12; weekly plans under 5% by month 6Monthly plans: ~17% at month 12; annual plans: ~44% at first renewal; weekly plans: ~3-4% at month 12Monthly plans: 25-40% of the cohort still paying at month 12; annual plans: 55-75% surviving the first renewal

Consumer subscription apps including media and entertainment, subscription-level retention (paid renewals covering elapsed time), RevenueCat network 2024-2025 data. SVOD reference: US premium SVOD 2024 signup cohorts showed 43% 9-month retention (Antenna). · Two retention constructs coexist. App-side sources (RevenueCat) measure subscription-level survival by plan length; SVOD panels (Antenna) measure account survival regardless of plan. Media and entertainment ranks among the highest-retaining app categories on monthly plans. Quartile data converted honestly: top30 approximates performance above the ~70th percentile of RevenueCat's published quartiles.

Category split omitted: Plan-length and app-category retention splits are published at scale only by RevenueCat; no second independent Tier 1-2 source covers the same split.

03

When it looks bad

Curves that keep sliding without flattening by month 4-6, and each newer cohort sitting below the previous one at the same age.

Month-3 retention falling from 55% to 40% across four consecutive monthly cohorts, with no plateau visible by month 6.

04

What to do about it

  • Push annual plans at the first paywall with a 25-35% discount; annual cohorts retain roughly 2.5x monthly cohorts at month 12 (44% vs 17% medians, RevenueCat)
  • Wire onboarding to a hero title inside the first 72 hours; cohorts that engage with flagship content retain well above benchmark, as with Black Friday cohorts at 57% vs 43% 9-month retention (Antenna)
  • Move from binge drops to a weekly release cadence so there is no natural cancellation point after a finale
  • Build a win-back program timed to new season drops; 1 in 5 subscription acquisitions are re-acquisitions and digital media has the highest return-acquisition share at 27.7% (Recurly)
05

Sources

  1. RevenueCatState of Subscription Apps 2025 · 2025 · n=75,000+ apps, $10B+ tracked revenue (2024) 12-month retention medians: annual plans 44.1%, monthly 17.0%, weekly 3.4%; upper quartile retains 60-75% on yearly plans; Media & Entertainment among highest monthly-plan retention categories revenuecat.com ↗
  2. RevenueCatState of Subscription Apps 2026 · 2026 · n=115,000+ apps, $16B tracked revenue Retention defined as paid renewals covering elapsed time; freemium retains 28% of yearly subscribers at 1 year vs 27% for hard paywall, a negligible gap revenuecat.com ↗
  3. RevenueCatAverage Subscription Renewal Rates by App Category · 2026 · RevenueCat network, 11 app categories Media & Entertainment median first renewal: 58% monthly, 37% annual, 45% weekly; renewal rates vary up to 19pp by category revenuecat.com ↗
  4. AntennaState of Subscriptions Q1'26: Premium SVOD 2025 Year in Review · 2026 · US consumer purchase panel, 10 premium SVOD services 9-month retention for 2024 Black Friday promo cohorts was 57% vs 43% for all 2024 sign-ups; weighted average monthly churn 4.6% in 2025 antenna.live ↗
  5. RecurlyChurn rate benchmarks by industry · 2026 · Recurly billing network, 2,200+ subscription brands Digital media & entertainment churn: 4.14% total (2.55% voluntary, 1.59% involuntary), July 2026 refresh recurly.com ↗
  6. Deloitte2025 Digital Media Trends · 2025 · n=3,595 US consumers 39% of consumers cancelled at least one paid SVOD in the prior six months; churn-and-return stable at 24% deloitte.com ↗