Luca Barberis

When do free users convert?

№ 076 · Free-to-paid conversion curve

01

Definition

MetricShare of installs converted to paid by day N since install

Unit% of installs paying, cumulative by day since install (day-35 window standard)

Percent of free signups converted to paid by month N, one line per cohort. Newer cohorts should sit higher. Build from product analytics joined with billing: count signups per cohort, count converters at each month, divide. Example: Q1 24 cohort hits 16% at M12; Q1 25 cohort already 18% at M6.

02

Benchmarks

Bottom 30%MedianTop 30%
under 1% by day 35, with the curve flat after day 11.9-2.8% download-to-paid by day 35; freemium median 2.1%; funnel decomposition ~10.9% install-to-trial times ~25.6% trial-to-paid8.5%+ download-to-paid by day 35 (top performers); hard-paywall apps median 10.7%

Subscription-led consumer apps, download-to-paid within 35 days of install, 2025-2026 transaction data (RevenueCat 115K+ apps, Adapty 16K+ apps). Consumer-app funnel; the SaaS free-to-paid card in the SaaS section uses a different population and different windows, do not cross-apply. · The hard paywall vs freemium split is the dominant definitional divide: 10.7% vs 2.1% at day 35 (RevenueCat 2026). Aggregation method also moves numbers: Adapty's average-of-app-rates gives 10.9%/25.6% for the funnel while median-of-apps cuts sit near 6.2%/34.8%, so state which statistic you use. Most conversions and most trial cancellations happen on day zero.

By category
CategoryBottom 30%MedianTop 30%
Health & Fitnessunder 25%trial-to-paid 35.0%trial-to-paid 40%+
Entertainmentunder 12%trial-to-paid 19.1% (weakest tracked category)trial-to-paid 25%+
By trial length (all categories)under-4-day trials, 25.5% and falling25.6% global average trial-to-paid17-32 day trials, 45.7% trial-to-paid
03

When it looks bad

The curve jumps at day 0-1 then goes completely flat with no later conversion mass, and newer cohorts flatten lower than older ones.

1.2% converted by day 3 and only 1.4% by day 35, with trial cancellations clustered on day zero before the core action was ever completed.

04

What to do about it

  • Move the paywall into onboarding with a trial attached; onboarding paywalls with trials convert installs to paid at ~1.78% vs ~1.35% for the market's average placement mix (Adapty 2026).
  • Lengthen the trial where activation genuinely needs time; 17-32 day trials convert at 45.7% vs 25.5% for trials under 4 days (RevenueCat).
  • Attack day-zero cancellation with a first-session activation sequence that completes the core action before the paywall recap; most trial cancellations happen on day zero (RevenueCat 2026).
  • Test a hard paywall if free users do not drive referral or network effects; hard paywalls convert ~5x freemium with statistically negligible year-one retention difference (RevenueCat 2026).
05

Sources

  1. RevenueCatState of Subscription Apps 2026 · 2026 · n=115,000+ apps, $16B+ revenue Hard paywalls convert 10.7% download-to-paid by day 35 vs 2.1% freemium, with near-identical year-one retention (27% vs 28%) revenuecat.com ↗
  2. RevenueCatState of Subscription Apps 2025 · 2025 · n=75,000+ apps, $10B+ transactions Hard paywall 12.1% vs freemium 2.2% download-to-paid; trials of 17-32 days convert at 45.7%, the highest of any length revenuecat.com ↗
  3. RevenueCatThe State of Subscription Apps in 10 minutes (2026 benchmarks) · 2026 · Same 2026 dataset Trials under 4 days convert at 25.5%, ~70% worse than long trials; short trials nonetheless rose to 46.5% of apps revenuecat.com ↗
  4. AdaptyState of In-App Subscriptions 2026 · 2026 · n=16,000+ apps, $3B+ subscription revenue Global funnel averages 10.9% install-to-trial and 25.6% trial-to-paid; weekly plans convert 1.7-7.4x better than annual adapty.io ↗
  5. AdaptyIn-app subscription benchmarks for Health & Fitness apps · 2026 · Same SOIS 2026 dataset Onboarding paywalls with trials produce the highest install-to-paid conversion, ~1.78% on average across the market adapty.io ↗
  6. AirbridgeSubscription App Conversion: From Installs to Paid Users · 2026 · Synthesis of Adapty SOIS 2026 and RevenueCat 2025 datasets Median subscription app converts 1.9% of downloads to paying within 35 days; top performers 8.5%; median-cut funnel 6.2% install-to-trial and ~35% trial-to-paid airbridge.io ↗
  7. Subscription InsiderRevenueCat's State of Subscription Apps 2025 Report (summary) · 2025 · Summary of the 75K-app dataset Corroborates the 12.1% vs 2.2% paywall split and the 45.7% long-trial conversion figure subscriptioninsider.com ↗