Are returns going up or down?
№ 060 · Return rate trend
Definition
MetricReturns as a share of orders or sales value over time
Unit% of online sales returned
Line of returns divided by orders over time. Watch for category drift (apparel runs 25%, electronics 8%). Build from return events divided by order events per period. Spikes after new SKU launches often signal fit or quality issues. Example: 14% Q1, 18% Q2 (after launching apparel line).
- SKU
- Stock keeping unit. One distinct sellable variant. Counted at the variant level, not the product level.
Benchmarks
| Bottom 30% | Median | Top 30% |
|---|---|---|
| 25%+ blended; 30% to 40% for women's and fast fashion | 19% to 20% for online sales; 15.8% for all retail including stores | under 10% blended; under 15% for apparel |
US retail, NRF and Happy Returns 2025 Retail Returns Landscape, retailer-reported share of annual sales returned, with the online-specific figure separated from the all-channel figure. Category bands from Coresight, Corso and Eightx compilations, 2025 to 2026. · Read the online rate (19.3%) and the all-retail rate (15.8%) as different metrics; they are routinely conflated. Brick and mortar runs 5% to 8.9% (Appriss Retail), so a brand's blended rate moves with channel mix alone. The rate is a weak management target on its own because it is largely set by category at the point the catalogue is chosen: apparel 20% to 40%, footwear 17% to 30%, electronics 8% to 15%, beauty 4% to 12%. Cost per return and share resold at full price matter more to margin than the headline rate, since each return costs $10 to $65 to process and only about 48% of returned items resell at full price. Note also that the NRF series is survey-based retailer self-report rather than transaction data, and 2025 (15.8%) came in below 2024 (16.9%).
| Category | Bottom 30% | Median | Top 30% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apparel and fashion | 35% to 40% | 22% to 25% | 15% |
| Footwear | 30% | 18% | 15% |
| Home and furniture | 25% | 15% to 20% | 10% |
| Beauty and personal care | 15% | 8% to 12% | 4% |
| Electronics | 15% | 10% to 11% | 8% |
| Supplements and health | 10% | 5% to 7% | 3% |
When it looks bad
The trend line steps up after a channel or campaign change and then holds at the new level rather than reverting, and the January and post-holiday spikes get taller each year, which points at bracketing and acquisition mix rather than at product quality.
Blended return rate moves from 16% to 23% over two quarters with no product change. The split shows social commerce orders returning at 23.7% against DTC-only at 14.8%, and the channel mix shifted 20 points toward social in the same period.
What to do about it
- Report cost per return and share resold at full price next to the rate. At $10 to $65 per return and only about 48% resold at full price, a 25% return rate can cut unit contribution margin by roughly 70% rather than 25%, which is the number that should drive the decision.
- Put fit and sizing tools on the highest-return SKUs rather than the whole catalogue. Size and fit drives 53% to 67% of apparel returns, and fit quizzes plus measurement data on product pages are reported to cut apparel returns by 3 to 6 points.
- Move to an exchange-first returns flow before considering return fees. Exchange-first portals convert 30% to 50% of would-be refunds into exchanges and preserve the revenue, while 72% of US retailers now charge fees and 57% of shoppers say they will not shop again with a retailer that charged them for a return.
- Gate serial returners rather than the whole base. Serial returners are typically 5% to 10% of customers but 20% to 30% of returns, so a threshold rule after 3 or 4 returns in 12 months reaches the cost without touching first-time buyers.
Sources
- National Retail Federation and Happy Returns (UPS) Retailers estimate 15.8% of annual sales returned in 2025, totalling $849.9B, with an estimated 19.3% of online sales returned and 17% of holiday sales expected back nrf.com ↗
- National Retail Federation and Happy Returns Retailers estimated 16.9% of 2024 annual sales would be returned, totalling $890B, giving a year-on-year decline into 2025 nrf.com ↗
- Retail TouchPoints (reporting NRF and Happy Returns) 9% of all returns are fraudulent; Gen Z consumers aged 18 to 30 averaged 7.7 online returns in 12 months, more than any other generation; 85% of retailers are deploying AI to detect return fraud retailtouchpoints.com ↗
- Eightx Overall online 20% to 21%; apparel 25% (range 20% to 40%), electronics 10% to 11%, beauty 12%, footwear 18%, home and furniture 15% to 20%, supplements 7%; portfolio cut showed apparel 22.4% median, DTC-only 14.8%, marketplace 19.1%, social commerce 23.7% eightx.co ↗
- Corso Footwear 17% to 30%, electronics and tech 8% to 10%, sporting goods and outdoor 10% to 15%, health and wellness 5% to 10% corso.com ↗
- Richpanel (citing NRF 2025) Overall ecommerce rate about 19% to 20% of online orders; apparel 20% to 40%, footwear 17% to 30%, electronics 8% to 15%, beauty 4% to 12% richpanel.com ↗
- Eightx (citing Loop Returns, Coresight, Optoro) 65.2% of merchants charge a return fee at an average of $9.04, 73.6% offer exchanges; Coresight puts apparel returns processing at up to about 66% of product price; size and fit drives 53% to 67% of apparel returns eightx.co ↗
- ShipNetwork Women's and fast fashion trend to 30% to 40%, with returns spiking 30% to 50% post-holiday; 51% of Gen Z shoppers bracket by ordering multiple sizes shipnetwork.com ↗