Do customers buy again on replacement cycles?
№ 132 · Repeat purchase rate by year
Definition
MetricShare of a device cohort that buys another device, by years since first purchase
Unit% of cohort purchasing a further device within N years
Bar chart of % of buyers who buy a second device within N years. Build by tracking customers across product purchases. Brand strength signal; declining repeat rate = brand erosion or churn. Example: 28% of buyers purchase a second device within 3 years.
Benchmarks
| Bottom 30% | Median | Top 30% |
|---|---|---|
| Under 10% within four years | 15% to 25% within four years | 30% or more of a cohort repurchasing within four years |
Consumer connected devices with a three to four year replacement cycle, global, 2024 to 2026. Anchored on observed device age at trade-in and platform loyalty rather than on a published cohort repurchase table. · Sources disagree sharply and the disagreement is definitional, not factual. Published replacement cycles range from 2.4 to 4.1 years because they measure different things: Assurant measures the physical age of devices turned in through trade-in programmes, Counterpoint and IDC derive a cycle from installed base divided by shipments, and survey data captures stated intent. A cohort repurchase rate is different again, since it requires the same identified customer to buy from you rather than from the category. Almost no consumer hardware brand publishes it, which is why confidence is low. Platform loyalty figures around 87% describe intent to stay on a platform, not a measured repurchase, and should not be substituted for the cohort number.
| Category | Bottom 30% | Median | Top 30% |
|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone cohorts, device age at turn-in | Above 4.0 years | 3.76 years in Q4 2025 | Turn-in under 3.5 years |
| Android cohorts, device age at turn-in | Above 4.5 years | 4.1 years in Q4 2025, first category above four years | Turn-in under 3.8 years |
| All smartphones, US trade-in programmes | Above 4.0 years | 3.83 years full-year 2025, 3.81 years Q1 2026 | Under 3.6 years |
When it looks bad
The year two and year three bars sit near zero and the year four bar fails to recover, so the cohort never comes back and every period's revenue has to be bought new at full acquisition cost.
Of a 12,000-unit cohort, 2% repurchase by year two, 4% by year three and 7% by year four, against a category replacement cycle just under four years.
What to do about it
- Time the upgrade offer to the cohort's own age curve rather than the marketing calendar. Devices come back at roughly 3.8 to 4.1 years on average (Assurant), so a year two upgrade push spends against a cohort that is not ready to move.
- Run a trade-in programme with a visible residual value rather than a discount. US trade-in returned $6.4bn to consumers in 2025, up 42%, and promotion-heavy quarters measurably pulled iPhone turn-in age forward to 3.76 years, which is the mechanism working in public.
- Keep the device inside the ecosystem between purchases through software updates and service, because platform loyalty near 87% (CIRP) is what converts a long replacement cycle into a repeat sale for you rather than a lost customer to the category.
- Register serial numbers at activation and tie them to an account. Without registration the repeat bar cannot be measured at all, only inferred from category replacement cycles, which is how most brands end up with no cohort chart.
Sources
- Assurant US consumers received over $6.4bn in value through trade-in programmes in 2025, up 42% year on year and the largest annual total since tracking began in 2015. In Q4 2025 average iPhone age at turn-in fell slightly to 3.76 years while Android devices passed four years. assurant.com ↗
- Assurant Average age of traded-in devices held at 3.81 years against 3.83 years for full-year 2025, on the industry's most active quarter on record by volume and value returned, at $1.63bn, up 31% year on year. assurant.com ↗
- Assurant For the first time in any smartphone category, average Android device age at turn-in passed four years, reaching 4.1 years in Q4 2025. assurant.com ↗
- Assurant Average age of devices returned through trade-in reached an all-time high of 3.88 years against 3.7 years a year earlier, with $1.34bn returned to consumers, up 60% year on year. assurant.com ↗
- Assurant, via Business Wire Average device age reached a then record high of 3.82 years with $1.24bn returned to consumers, a 40% increase year on year, while turned-in devices trended toward newer models. businesswire.com ↗
- Axis Intelligence, citing CIRP and Apple SEC filings CIRP put iPhone platform loyalty at 87% in the March 2026 quarter with 12% of new buyers arriving from Android. Moving an average replacement from 2.6 to 2.8 years cuts the sustainable annual replacement rate by roughly 7% with no change in user numbers. axis-intelligence.com ↗
- Counterpoint Research, reported via BigGo Finance The global average replacement cycle peaked at 43.4 months in 2023 and held near 43 months the following year, with performance plateau and price increases named as the two decisive factors extending it. finance.biggo.com ↗
- SellCell Global average replacement cycle length reported at 3.5 years for 2025, with 40.4% of people upgrading every two to three years and 75% citing battery degradation as the trigger. Aggregator source, used only to corroborate the range. sellcell.com ↗
- Eightx Electronics was the category whose payback extended most in 2025 to 2026, as one-time purchase economics met rising CAC with no frequency lever. A second-purchase rate moving from 22% to 35% within 90 days shortens payback faster than any CAC optimisation. eightx.co ↗