Luca Barberis

Is the recurring business growing as a share of revenue?

№ 131 · Service / subscription revenue mix

01

Definition

MetricService and subscription revenue as a share of total revenue

Unit% of total revenue

Stacked area of hardware vs service or subscription revenue over time with percent annotations. Tag each revenue line accordingly. Service growing into significant share means lock-in working. Example: Y1 HW $230M + Service $20M = $250M; Y6 $310M + $190M = $500M (service nearly 40%).

02

Benchmarks

Bottom 30%MedianTop 30%
Under 5% of total revenue10% to 16% of total revenue25% or more of total revenue

Consumer hardware brands with an attached subscription or service line, FY2025 reported revenue splits from SEC filings. Excludes companies where the hardware is sold at or below cost to seed a platform, which distorts the ratio. · The ratio is easy to move for the wrong reason, which is the main thing to watch. A rising service share caused by falling device revenue is not the same result as a rising share caused by growing service revenue, and the chart cannot tell them apart. One public camera maker's service share rose from 9.7% to 16.3% over two years while service dollars moved only from $97m to $106m and hardware revenue fell 40%. Always read the percentage against absolute service dollars and subscriber count. Definitions also vary: some filers include extended warranty and repair in services, others report it separately, and platform companies including app store or payments revenue in the same line are not comparable to a device brand selling a storage or analysis subscription.

Category split omitted: Service revenue is reported on inconsistent bases across device categories, with some filers folding extended warranty and repair into the same line and platform companies including app store and payments revenue, so no comparable category split can be assembled from two independent sources.

03

When it looks bad

The service share line rises steadily while the absolute service revenue line beneath it is flat, so the entire improvement is the denominator shrinking rather than the recurring business growing.

Service share climbs from 9.7% to 16.3% of revenue over two years while service dollars move from $97m to $106m and hardware revenue falls from $908m to $545m.

04

What to do about it

  • Report absolute service revenue and subscriber count on the same chart as the mix percentage, so a shrinking denominator can never be presented as progress. This is the single most common misreading of this card.
  • Set an activation-to-paid-subscription conversion target per device cohort and manage it as a funnel. A base of 2.36 million subscribers against 1.8 million units sold in a year means the installed base is carrying the subscription, not new attach, and that is a different problem to fix.
  • Price the subscription against a recurring benefit the device cannot deliver alone, such as cloud storage, replacement cover or analysis, rather than as a discount toward the next device, which converts recurring revenue into a deferred hardware discount.
  • If subscriber count is falling while device sales fall, fix churn before adding tiers, because churn on a shrinking installed base compounds from both ends and no amount of packaging outruns it.
05

Sources

  1. US SEC (GoPro, Inc.)GoPro Form 10-K, fiscal year 2025 · 2026 · One public consumer camera manufacturer, three-year split Subscription and services revenue was 16.3% of total revenue in 2025, against 13.3% in 2024 and 9.7% in 2023. In absolute terms the line moved from $97.5m to $107.0m to $106.3m, while hardware revenue fell from $908.0m to $545.3m. sec.gov ↗
  2. US SEC (GoPro, Inc.)GoPro Form DEF 14A, fiscal year 2025 · 2026 · One public manufacturer, FY2025 Subscriber count ended Q4 2025 at 2.36 million generating $106m in subscription and service revenue, down 1% year on year, against total revenue of $652m and 1.8 million camera units sold. sec.gov ↗
  3. US SEC (GoPro, Inc.)GoPro Form 8-K, Q3 2025 results · 2025 · One public manufacturer, quarterly Subscription and service revenue was $27m, down 3% year on year, with subscriber count of 2.42 million, down 5%, while total revenue fell 37%. The mix percentage improved on a shrinking denominator. sec.gov ↗
  4. US SEC (GoPro, Inc.)GoPro Form 8-K, Q2 2025 results · 2025 · One public manufacturer, quarterly Subscription and service revenue was flat year on year at $26m with 2.45 million subscribers, down 3%, against total revenue down 18%. sec.gov ↗
  5. TechLila, compiling Apple SEC disclosuresApple Services Revenue Statistics 2026 · 2026 · Apple reported segment revenue, FY2023 to FY2025 Services revenue reached $109.16bn in 2025 with hardware accounting for roughly 74% of total revenue, so the services share sits around 26%. Quarterly services revenue reached $27.42bn in the June 2025 quarter, near 29% of total revenue. techlila.com ↗
  6. US SEC (Best Buy Co Inc)Best Buy Form ARS, fiscal year 2025 · 2025 · One large US consumer electronics retailer Services comparable sales grew 5.3%, driven primarily by warranty services and membership programmes, and the domestic gross profit rate rose primarily due to improved performance from the services category. sec.gov ↗
  7. EightxConsumer Electronics Financial Benchmarks 2026 · 2026 · Six public consumer electronics comps, SEC EDGAR Operating margins across six comps range from plus 26% to minus 13% on nearly identical gross margins, so the recurring line is one of the few structural levers available below the gross margin line in this category. eightx.co ↗
  8. CirculyCase study: Peloton's hardware-as-a-service model · 2026 · Single-company case study, connected fitness Reports subscriptions at approximately 67% of total revenue for a connected fitness manufacturer, an upper bound for what a device-plus-subscription model can reach. Vendor-published case study, treat as directional only. circuly.io ↗