Of each acquisition cohort, what share has converted to paid by month N?
№ 025 · Paid penetration by cohort
Definition
MetricCumulative share of each acquisition cohort on a paid plan by month N
Unit% of cohort on paid
Triangular cohort grid showing % of cohort converted to paid by month N. Read the rightmost cell of each row as cumulative conversion. Newer cohorts should beat older at same age. Build same as Free-to-paid curve but in grid form. Example: Oct 25 cohort 17% at M5; Mar 26 cohort 5% at M0.
Benchmarks
| Bottom 30% | Median | Top 30% |
|---|---|---|
| Freemium cohorts flat under 2% by month 6; trial cohorts whose paid share peaks at expiry then declines as early payers churn out | Freemium cohorts around 2.6-5.6% paid at maturity, with roughly half of eventual converters arriving after month 1; opt-in trial cohorts around 8-9% terminal | Freemium cohorts reaching 8%+ paid by month 6 with the curve still rising; trial-led cohorts reaching their terminal rate (15-25%+ opt-in) within the trial month and holding it as churn is offset by late converters |
B2B SaaS self-serve funnels, 2020-2026; penetration = cumulative converts minus churned payers, so the curve can bend down, unlike the conversion curve in card 023 · This is the net version of card 023: same conversion sources apply but no Tier 1-2 source publishes net paid-penetration curves, so bands are assembled from conversion benchmarks plus timing data and confidence is low. The distinguishing signal on this chart is the late-month slope: freemium products earn a rising tail (upgrades trickle for months), trial products do not.
Category split omitted: Net paid-penetration curves by cohort are not published by any two independent Tier 1-2 sources; only gross conversion benchmarks exist.
When it looks bad
The hump: a cohort's paid share rises to a peak within 1-2 months and then declines, meaning early payers churn faster than late converters arrive and the cohort's monetization is net-shrinking.
March cohort: 6% paid at month 2, 5.1% at month 4, 4.2% at month 6. Every marketing report celebrated the month-2 print; six months later a third of that monetization is gone.
What to do about it
- Report penetration net of payer churn, never gross conversions; the hump pattern is invisible on card 023 and only shows here.
- If the curve humps, the early converters are deadline-driven or mispackaged: move upgrade triggers to milestones and check whether the entry paid tier underdelivers against its promise (downgrade-to-free interviews find this fast).
- Grow the late tail deliberately: freemium converters arriving in months 3-6 are the durable ones; run a month-2 to month-4 lifecycle sequence aligned with the ChartMogul commitment window, plus in-product limit prompts.
- Compare cohorts at fixed months (M3, M6, M12) in a table next to the curves; eyeballing overlapping curves hides a 1-point vintage decay that compounds into real revenue.
Sources
- Product Growth Blog (reporting OpenView/High Alpha data) B2B freemium median ~2.6% free-to-paid, top quartile 5-8% productgrowth.blog ↗
- Pulseahead (reporting ChartMogul 2026 study) Opt-in 8.9%, opt-out 31.4%, freemium 5.6% average conversion; distribution strongly clustered, so cohort curves vary widely by cluster pulseahead.com ↗
- Artisan Growth Strategies Freemium upgrades trickle in over months; 30-day windows understate penetration for products converting after day 90 artisangrowthstrategies.com ↗
- ADV.me Freemium median conversion lands months 3-6; usage limits convert better than feature limits adv.me ↗
- OpenView Freemium converts fewer per signup but more per visitor; model choice sets the shape of the penetration curve openviewpartners.com ↗