When does each user cohort pay back its acquisition cost through transactions, interchange, and float, and how does it compound?
№ 111 · User ROAS curve
Definition
MetricCumulative gross profit per acquired user as a multiple of acquisition cost, by cohort month
Unitcumulative gross profit divided by CAC (x), by months since acquisition
Cumulative revenue per user (interchange + interest + fees) against user CAC by cohort. Build by aggregating per-cohort revenue streams against CAC. Different tiers have different curves; compare. Example: Tier 1 users 1.0x at M3, 3.4x at M24; Tier 3 1.0x at M12, plateaus at 1.6x.
- ROAS
- Return on ad spend. Revenue attributed to a campaign divided by the spend on that campaign.
- CAC
- Customer acquisition cost. Fully loaded sales and marketing spend in a period divided by new customers won in that period.
Benchmarks
| Bottom 30% | Median | Top 30% |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0x not reached inside 24 months, or a curve that flattens below 1.0x because cohort revenue decays faster than it compounds | 1.0x reached at about 18 to 21 months, which is the five to seven quarter payback band disclosed by the largest US neobank | 1.0x reached within 12 to 15 months, on a fully loaded CAC that includes KYC, card issuance and sign-up incentives |
Consumer fintech acquiring on paid and referral channels, cumulative cohort transaction profit against cohort acquisition cost. US and European consumer fintech, 2022 to 2026 cohorts. Payback defined as the point at which cumulative cohort transaction profit meets that cohort's acquisition cost. · The one clean disclosed anchor is Chime, which reported roughly seven quarters of payback for 2022 cohorts improving to five to six quarters by Q1 2026, on acquisition cost of USD 93 to USD 130 per member. That is a single company with an unusually strong referral mix, roughly half of new members, so it flatters the median. The definitional trap is CAC scope: a headline USD 50 neobank CAC becomes USD 269 or more per activated customer once KYC, sign-up bonuses, card issuance and funnel failure are included, which moves payback by a factor of five. State whether the chart uses signup CAC or funded-account CAC. Geography matters too, with Southeast Asian acquisition costs running 40 to 60% below North American and LatAm about 60% below, so a global blended curve mixes incompatible cohorts.
| Category | Bottom 30% | Median | Top 30% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interchange-led US neobank, disclosed cohort payback | not separately disclosed | about 7 quarters for 2022 cohorts | 5 to 6 quarters |
| Credit-led LatAm digital bank, revenue ramp rather than payback | early cohorts near USD 5 per month | blended ARPAC USD 15 against cost to serve USD 0.80 per month | ARPAC of about USD 26 to 27 for cohorts of 5 to 8 years |
When it looks bad
The cumulative curves bend over and go horizontal below the 1.0x line, so instead of continuing to climb toward and through payback they asymptote short of it, meaning cohort revenue is decaying at roughly the rate new revenue arrives.
The month-24 point sits at 0.71x for the 2024 cohort and 0.63x for the 2025 cohort, both flat since month 15. Every acquired user is a permanent loss of about a third of CAC, and scaling spend scales the loss.
What to do about it
- Rebuild the chart on fully loaded CAC per funded account before making any spend decision. Including KYC at USD 5 to 15, sign-up incentives at USD 25 to 250, card issuance at USD 5 to 15 and activation drag can take a USD 50 headline CAC to USD 269 or more, and a curve drawn on the headline number will show payback that does not exist (Webtonic FoundryCRO 2026 benchmarks).
- Attack the numerator through product depth rather than the denominator through cheaper traffic. Chime's payback moved from about seven quarters to five to six on early engagement work rather than on media efficiency, and members using six or more products generated 1.8x the average revenue while referring 1.6x as many friends (Chime Q1 2026 call and S-1/A).
- Split the curve by channel and kill any channel whose cohort has not crossed 0.5x by month 12, since a channel that is behind at month 12 essentially never catches up once the retention curve has flattened.
- Filter install and signup fraud before the cohort is drawn, because in Western European finance nearly one in two investment app installs was flagged fraudulent, which inflates the denominator, contaminates the retention base and produces a ROAS curve that is confidently wrong (AppsFlyer with Sensor Tower, 2026).
Sources
- Chime Financial (SEC Form S-1/A) Defines payback as the point at which cumulative transaction profit for a member cohort meets the acquisition costs incurred when that cohort first became active, and defines a primary relationship as 15 or more card purchases per month or a qualifying USD 200 direct deposit. sec.gov ↗
- Chime (Q1 2026 earnings call transcript, The Motley Fool) Early engagement initiatives lowered acquisition costs and brought the cohort payback period to five to six quarters. fool.com ↗
- The Free Toaster, analysing the Chime S-1 Acquisition cost per new active member of USD 109 in 2024, or USD 91 excluding broader brand marketing, with payback in about seven quarters for 2022 cohorts and faster for the Q1 and Q2 2023 cohorts. thefreetoaster.com ↗
- Bob Hammel (Substack), analysing Chime disclosures Quarterly acquisition cost per member ranged from USD 93 to USD 130 since 2022 and was USD 107 in Q1 2026; LTV to CAC of 8x or better implies payback of five to six quarters, improved from about seven a year earlier. bobhammel.substack.com ↗
- Nu Holdings (Nubank) ARPAC of USD 15.0 and cost to serve of USD 0.80 per active customer per month, with an efficiency ratio of 19.9% and ROE of 33%; 15 to 90 day NPL declined to 4.1%. international.nubank.com.br ↗
- Nu Holdings (Nubank) ARPAC of USD 11.2 with mature cohorts at almost USD 26, monthly activity rate of 83.2% and cost to serve of USD 0.70. international.nubank.com.br ↗
- Webtonic (FoundryCRO benchmark set) A neobank reporting USD 50 CAC pays USD 269 or more per activated customer once KYC at USD 5 to 15, sign-up bonuses at USD 25 to 250, card issuance at USD 5 to 15 and activation-rate drag are included; fintech retention falls from 28% at day 1 to 14% at day 30. webtonic.io ↗
- Databrain Activation benchmarks of 30 to 60% for neobank first-funded account, 50 to 80% for payments first transaction and 25 to 50% for wealth-tech first funded portfolio; a USD 40 signup CAC becomes USD 80 to 120 per funded customer once funnel failure is included. usedatabrain.com ↗
- AppsFlyer, with Sensor Tower and Google Ads Web-to-app drove 41.8% of owned media conversions in Western European finance apps, nearly one in two Western European investment app installs was flagged fraudulent, and BNPL installs grew 40% while crypto fell 35%. appsflyer.com ↗
- LTV CAC Book, citing FirstPageSage, Benchmarkit and KeyBanc Primarily North American figures, with Southeast Asia running 40 to 60% lower, Latin America about 60% lower and Southern and Eastern European CPCs 2 to 5x lower than US and UK equivalents. ltvcacbook.com ↗